If the 4-year expected value is $80k at $8b, or $120k at $12b, the difference is real no doubt, but in the end, not hugely material and in any event, may change over the coming years anyway.
I doubt the exact share price will have a huge difference. A Black-Scholes analysis might grant an employee an expected $100,000 in equity value over a 4 year vesting period based on an assumed value (say $10b or $8b or whatever) and an assumed volatility in the stock price. Employees would then only make 20% less at an $8b valuation than a $10b valuation. Instead, they likely are giving out RSUs with a $0.00 strike price, with a value determined on a Black-Scholes analysis. Perhaps Dropbox is giving out options with an $8b strike price, but I doubt it. Second, early employees’ option exercise prices will be a tiny fraction of $8b-$10b, and later employees tend to get equity grants as RSUs that insulate them from most effects of a modest valuation difference. That bump alone will likely get Dropbox to $10b+ valuation, at least it’s first quarter out. Most IPOs are intentionally priced at least 20%-30% “low”. If we’re at $8b pricing at the IPO, I would be shocked if Dropbox trades below $10b its first week. First, I highly doubt Dropbox will end up trading at < $10b so it won’t be a “down-round”.
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